May kicks off with dragon fruit trading above $40 per box, driven by tight Ecuadorian supply and resilient buyer demand. This outlook unpacks current price levels, tariff effects, volume forecasts, and actionable sourcing recommendations for both retail and wholesale channels.
Having a good pulse on trends and recent impacts of tariffs can make all the difference when meeting consumer demands. Let’s review where the market is:
Price Trends & Resistance Levels
- Current Prices: First‑week pricing remains in the $40–$42 range, with buyers pushing back on further increases.
- Mid‑May Adjustment: As Ecuador ramps up shipments, anticipate a gradual slide into the high‑$30s—potentially dipping into the mid‑$30s by late May.
- Late‑June Projection: With Florida’s domestic season expected to begin around June 15, stronger U.S. supply could pull prices toward the low‑$30s—barring any weather‑related disruptions.
Tariff Impact & Cost Floor
- A 10% U.S. import tariff on Ecuadorian fruit effectively raises landed costs, creating a pricing floor near $30/box until tariff relief or duty exemptions occur.
- Recommendation: Negotiate split‑tariff shipments (e.g., mixed‑origin loads) or explore bonded‑warehouse programs to mitigate duty impact.
Supply Signals & Volume Drivers
- Limited Early Volumes: Late‑April weather fluctuations in Guayas and Manabí provinces constrained initial exports.
- Production Ramp: Expect steady volume increases after May 10 as new harvests mature—plan contract orders accordingly to smooth out spot‑market volatility.
Here are recommendation’s to help you mitigate costs and volume variances:
Buyer Strategies
- Spot vs. Contract Balance: Lock in 20–25% of your May–June needs on contract at $38–$40/box; cover the remainder on the spot market to capture potential dips.
- Retail Positioning: Use “Early‑Season Ecuadorian Dragon Fruit” messaging to command a premium—bundle with tropical fruit assortments to drive basket lift.
Outlook & Next Steps
- Short‑Term (Next 2 Weeks): Maintain watch on weekly shipment volumes and currency shifts (USD/EUR).
- Medium‑Term (June–July): Monitor Florida arrivals; adjust contract volumes to avoid overstock once domestic supply hits.
If you want personalized outlook and support for your program, reach out to us today.
